My guesses at regional hosts

The NCAA will select regional hosts on Nov. 3. Here are the schools I think will get the nods, assuming all of the following teams submitted bids to host.

Central: Washington
Midwest: UW-Eau Claire
Great Lakes: Wittenberg
New York: New York University
Mid-Atlantic: Juniata
New England: Amherst
South: Christopher Newport*
West: Cal Lutheran*

If any look incorrect or unfair to you, keep in mind that the NCAA has to pay airfare to teams that travel 500+ miles to a regional, according this mileage site. If it’s less than 500 miles to any host, then you gas up the bus.

Agree or disagree with my guesses?

p.s. The NCAA does not like to pay for airline tickets if at all possible.

* The NCAA would be best served by waiting on the South and West hosts. Depending on conference tourney results, my guess is that the South Regional will be in Texas or Virginia. The West Regional could be in Southern California or the Pacific Northwest. My best guesses on how the bids will shake out mean Virginia and Southern California will save the NCAA the most money. Fan travel plans will be hurt if the NCAA waits to announce the West and South, but it’s a possibility because there are not clusters of “locks” in either region

-Ricky Nelson

No. 1 seeds are set around the nation

Check to see which teams are the favorites around the country on the Conference Tourney page. From there you can access links to all 41 Pool A conference tournaments (there are 42 Pool A’s this season, but the Northwest Conference doesn’t hold a postseason tourney). I provided dates and No. 1 seeds for each tourney. I will also post the winners of each on that page when the time comes. The links will get better – I hope – in the coming days for roughly half of the conferences and/or hosts that have yet to create tournament sites.

The Standout Stats page was also updated (as much as it can be) this morning, like it is every day. If you have not checked it out in a while, there have been some huge numbers put up across the two regions this week.

-Ricky Nelson

(Updated) 10/30 results: Lady Reds make statement; Oles, Monmouth clinch; DeLozier mashes 45 kills

I tried to make the headline longer, but I couldn’t think of another English word. It was a busy day. Here were my highlights.

#11 St. Olaf 3, Carleton 0
The Oles share the MIAC title with St. Thomas at 10-1, but St. Olaf will be the No. 1 seed at the MIAC playoffs due to SOC’s win over UST. It’s SOC’s first MIAC title since 2001

Beloit 3, St. Norbert 0
Lawrence 3, Lake Forest 2
Today’s results mean idle Monmouth is the MWC co-champ with Beloit at 7-2, but Monmouth will be the No. 1 seed at the MWC tourney next week due to its road win over Beloit on Oct. 3. MC, LFC and SNC all went into today with a chance to host as the No. 1 seed. LFC (6-3 MWC) will be the No. 3 seed and SNC (6-3) will be No. 4. LFC beat SNC on Friday

#10 Carthage 3, #12 St. Thomas 0
Three close ones, but UST errors (36 total, 26 on the attack) were too much to overcome. The loss could take UST out of the running to host a regional. The Lady Reds end their home invite with a 3-0 record against in-region ranked teams and 4-0 overall. CC is 10-0 since a CCIW setback against Millikin 10 days ago. Regional hosts are selected on Nov. 3, and CC will be high among the list of possibilities. UST had won 22 straight against D-III opponents and finished with a 3-1 mark this weekend (2-1 vs. in-region ranked teams). CC is now 9-5, and UST 8-3, vs. in-region ranked teams. CC is ranked No. 1 in the Midwest. UST is No. 3 in the Central

Maranatha 3, Lincoln Christian 2
Torey DeLozier, the D-III leader in kills and points per set, amassed 45 kills in the match to lead the Crusaders to a NCCAA Regional championship. MBBC now advances to the NCCAA national tournament on Nov. 11. DeLozier was named the NCCAA Midwest Region Player of the Year. Fellow Crusader Samantha Pagel was named the region’s Libero of the Year. MBBC’s Regina DeLozier was named the region’s Coach of the Year. Before MBBC plays for an NCCAA title, the Crusaders will play in the NAC tourney next week as the No. 8 seed

#12 St. Thomas 3, #17 UW Oshkosh 0
UST held UWO to 18 points or fewer in each set. UWO is now probably a lower-half NCAA seed after an 0-4 weekend overall and 0-3 vs. in-region ranked teams. UWO falls to 5-8 vs. in-region ranked teams. UST is No. 3 in the Central. UWO is No. 6 in the Midwest

#10 Carthage 3, Trinity (Texas) 2
Three of CC’s top five offensive weapons hit .387 or better as the Lady Reds pick up another quality in-region win. CC is No. 1 in the Midwest. TU is No. 6 in the South

#13 Heidelberg 3, #17 UW Oshkosh 0
HU held UWO to 45 total points in the nonregional match. UWO’s current five-match losing streak is its longest since 1998. HU is No. 1 in the Great Lakes. UWO is No. 6 in the Midwest

Luther 3, Elmhurst 0
Three close sets, but EC drops the in-region match. EC is No. 7 in the Midwest. LC is unranked in the Central

#14 UW-Whitewater 3, Elmhurst 0
UWW picks up a win over an in-region ranked team. UWW is now 6-5 and EC is 2-8 vs. in-region ranked teams. UWW is No. 4 in the Midwest. EC is No. 7 in the Midwest

#22 UW-Platteville 3, #21 Chicago 1
UWP adds another win over a regionally ranked team and win the Illinois Wesleyan tournament in the process with a 3-0 record. UWP had five hitters reach double-digit kills. UWP has now won 16 straight since a loss to UW-Eau Claire on Oct. 1. UC is 10-6 in its last 16 matches. UC falls to 4-8 vs. in-region ranked teams. UWP improves to 5-3 against like teams

St. Scholastica 3, Northwestern 1
CSS won the last three sets to completes its undefeated UMAC run at 14-0. NWC will be the No. 2 seed at the UMAC tourney next week

#18 Concordia-Moorhead 3, Saint Benedict 1
CCM wins the last three sets to win the MIAC match between two regionally ranked teams. CCM recorded 16 blocks. CCM will be the No. 3 seed and CSB No. 5 at the MIAC playoffs next week. CCM is now 4-3, and CSB 1-8, vs. in-region ranked teams. CCM is No. 4 in the Central. CSB is No. 7 in the Central

-Ricky Nelson

UWRF’s Suda new assist leader

Two days ago Edgewood’s Lindsey Swansby had 66 assists in five sets to set a season high in the Midwest and Central regions. Swansby’s lead lasted all of one day, according to last night’s box scores.

UW-River Falls setter Mackenzie Suda had 68 in four sets (a ridiculous 17 per) yesterday in a win over NAC champion Concordia (Wis.) yesterday. Can that be correct? If so, wow.

We’ll see if Suda’s mark lasts more than a day. But I’d say 68 is a safe bet to be tops in four sets at the end of the year. Check in with the Standout Stats page to see Suda’s listing and many, many others.

-Ricky Nelson

(Updated) 10/29 results: CSS clinches UMAC; UST, Carthage big winners

St. Scholastica 3, Crown 0
The Saints clinch the UMAC outright with the win and will be the No. 1 seed at the conference tourney, which will decide the UMAC’s first AQ into the NCAA tournament. It’s CSS’s first outright UMAC title since 1988. CSS (13-0) will try to complete its undefeated UMAC season in the finale on Saturday against Northwestern (11-2)

#10 Carthage 3, #13 Heidelberg 2
A nice nonregional win for the Lady Reds (24-7), who won Set 5, 16-14. CC is No. 1 in the Midwest. HU is No. 1 in the Great Lakes
Box score

Trinity (Texas) 3, #17 UW Oshkosh 2
Another tough in-region loss against a regionally ranked opponent for the Titans. Trinity won Set 5, 15-8. UWO is sixth in the Midwest. Trinity is sixth in the South

#12 St. Thomas 3, Trinity (Texas) 1
The Tommies pick up a win over a regionally ranked team. UST is No. 3 in the Central. Trinity is No. 6 in the South

#12 St. Thomas 3, #13 Heidelberg 0
The Tommies (25-4) get their 21st consecutive win over D-III opponents. This win isn’t in-region, but it looks nice on the overall resume. UST is No. 3 in the Central. HU is No. 1 in the Great Lakes

#10 Carthage 3, #17 UW Oshkosh 0
The Lady Reds cruised in the last two sets in their quest to possibly host a regional. UWO had 12 points in the second and third sets. CC is the top-ranked Midwest team. UWO is No. 6 in the Midwest

Lake Forest 3, St. Norbert 1
The Foresters clinch a MWC tourney berth and create a logjam atop the standings with the big road win. LFC, SNC and Beloit are tied at 6-2, all trailing clubhouse leader Monmouth (7-2). Tomorrow’s finales:
LFC @ Lawrence (3-5)
BC @ SNC
The only thing determined today is that LFC, SNC, MC and BC will make up the MWC tourney field. If I have my math correct, Beloit is the only team of the top four without a chance to win the No. 1 seed and host the MWC tourney

-Ricky Nelson

Edgewood’s Palmer, Swansby post huge numbers in win

Edgewood outside Mallory Palmer had 31 kills and setter Lindsey Swansby had 66 assists to lead Edgewood to a five-set nonconference home win over Dubuque last night. Both are the new leaders on this season’s Standout Stats page. Palmer is the first player in the Midwest and Central regions to reach 30+ kills this season, and it happened only once last season.

St. Olaf’s Kim Smisek led the Central and Midwest regions last season with a 31-kill performance against Luther.

Over the past two seasons only Illinois Wesleyan’s Stacy Hassinger had more than Swansby’s 66 assists. Hassinger had 70 against Wartburg in 2009.

-Ricky Nelson

Reflecting on the 2nd regional rankings

Well done again, Central Region committee. Based on the numbers, I wouldn’t change a thing. The minor adjustments were justified. As I stated several times, I really like St. Olaf ahead of St. Thomas. And Saint Mary’s over Nebraska Wesleyan makes a lot of sense.

Keeping up the positive beat, thank you to the people responsible for providing records versus in-region ranked teams. That’s a much appreciated addition. As a bonus, all of the numbers checked out. I was hoping to find an error or two. Alas …

In the Midwest, Carthage and UW-Eau Claire are very close. UWEC has an edge in all criteria except head-to-head. I agree that Carthage should be the leader, but it’s a razor-thin margin. I also agree that Elmhurst and Millikin should be seventh and eighth, respectively. It’s with the middle four teams that I have a problem. Go figure, right?

If we can agree that UW-Platteville, UW-Whitewater, Chicago and UW Oshkosh are the third through sixth teams (I do, the committee does), how can you not compare them to each other? I mean take those four teams – and no others because there isn’t much debate that those are the middle four teams – and see how they stack up against each other, using the stated primary criteria in the Handbook.

Wash U beat Juniata? Fantastic for Wash U, but it doesn’t matter in the primary criteria. The flipside example is Chicago lost to unranked but in-region Dominican? Still doesn’t matter outside of the hit to the record (which counts the same as a loss to Wash U or Blackburn) and a hit to the SOS (but that would have occurred had Chicago won). Oshkosh is 4-4 in its last eight and has lost its last three against ranked teams? Neither is a stated primary criterion. What if Whitewater lost to Chicago by only two in the fifth set? Close doesn’t matter. All of that boring and admittedly intuitive rambling leads to the pertinent facts:

No. 3 UW-Platteville: 21-3 in-region, .574 SOS, 4-3 vs. ranked teams, beat Whitewater, lost to Oshkosh, beat Chicago
No. 4 UW-Whitewater: 18-5 in-region, .599 SOS, 5-5 vs. ranked teams, lost to Platteville, lost to Oshkosh, lost to Chicago
No. 5 Chicago: 23-8 in-region, .577 SOS, 4-7 vs. ranked teams, split with Oshkosh, beat Whitewater, lost to Platteville
No. 6 UW Oshkosh: 21-6 in-region, .589 SOS, 5-5 vs. ranked teams, beat Whitewater, split vs. Chicago, beat Platteville

I’ve made it clear numerous times that I’m a huge fan of this year’s Platteville team. If any of the above four are correct, I may be convinced that UWP is No. 3, mostly because of UWP’s and UWO’s record against common regional opponent Elmhurst, but does that cancel out UWO’s head-to-head win over UWP? I don’t know. That’s close. Let me also be clear that I get it – the numbers are close and it’s a tough and thankless job for the most part. I said thanks to the Central committee, so that has to count for something.

For the record my order is: Oshkosh/Platteville, Platteville/Oshkosh, Chicago, Whitewater. To nip it in the bud, yes, I graduated from Oshkosh. I’m also more critical of Oshkosh on this site than any other team, and I think I’m being objective. Whether you agree or disagree, let me know your order for the “Midwest 4.”

In closing, for the sake of speculation, I think these three teams are just outside the rankings in both regions (in no particular order until I punted the last spot in the Midwest):
CENTRAL
Northwestern
Loras
Central
MIDWEST
UW-Stevens Point
Dominican
St. Norbert/Edgewood/UW-River Falls (couldn’t decide)

-Ricky Nelson

(Updated) 10/27 results: Tommies keep pressure on in MIAC

#12 St. Thomas 3, Saint Benedict 1
The Tommies clinch a share of the MIAC title and a first-round bye in the MIAC playoffs. UST (10-1 MIAC) completed its MIAC schedule. St. Olaf (9-1) has one to play on Saturday. If St. Olaf wins, the Oles will be the No. 1 seed in the MIAC playoffs. St. Olaf has also secured a first-round bye at the MIAC playoffs. St. Tomas is ranked third in the Central region; Saint Benedict is seventh

St. Catherine 3, Saint Mary’s 2
St. Kate’s (5-5 MIAC) prevents SMU (6-4) from clinching a MIAC playoff berth while keeping its own hopes alive, setting up an interesting last day in the MIAC. St. Kate’s won Set 5, 15-7
UPDATE: SMU and St. Kate’s are in the MIAC playoffs

Simpson 3, Cornell 1
A Simpson win means Loras wins the IIAC outright. Cornell needs a win to create a defacto IIAC championship match against Loras on Tuesday
UPDATE: Loras (7-0) is the IIAC champ and No. 1 seed. SC finishes at 5-3 and in the IIAC tourney. Cornell falls to 5-2 (and in the IIAC tourney obviously)

Concordia (Wis.) 3, Marian 1
A CUW win means an outright NAC championship
UPDATE: CUW (11-1 NAC) wins the NAC outright behind Stephanie Boehm’s 24 kills and four blocks. Marian (6-6 NAC) will be the No. 6 seed at the NAC tourney

Dominican 3, Wisconsin Lutheran 0
Possible championship, definite NAC seeding on the line
UPDATE: No championship impact because Concordia (Wis.) won, but DU (10-2 NAC) nabs the No. 2 seed at the NAC tourney. WLC (8-4) will be the No. 5 seed

UW-Platteville 3, UW-Stevens Point 1
WIAC tourney seeding is on the line. UWP could be the No. 3 seed with a win
UPDATE: No. 3 seed it is for UWP (6-2 WIAC) at the WIAC tourney. UWSP (3-5) will be the No. 5 seed. Not to toot my own horn, but I did pick the top four WIAC teams, in order, in the preseason. Not many had UW-Whitewater fourth. Toot toot!

-Ricky Nelson

Second regional rankings released

I have not looked at them closely tonight, but I will tomorrow morning. At first glance the Central and Midwest regions look like I thought they should. St. Olaf is now above St. Thomas in the Central, and UW-Platteville went from No. 6 to No. 3 in the Midwest. I have a couple of knee-jerk questions about a few of the rankings, but I need to delve into the numbers to see whether they’re justified.

I really appreciate the NCAA providing OWP, OOWP and SOS numbers. The reason why I’m holding off on weekly predictions is because I’m not tracking those numbers independently this season. It’s hard to make judgements without the facts. I thought the site I linked to last week would be my early source of that info, but as we’ve seen those SOS numbers are unreliable.

Week 2 regional rankings
Week 1 regional rankings

-Ricky Nelson

Conference tourneys taking shape

More than half of the 42 Pool A conferences have determined a No. 1 seed for their tournaments. I’m again tracking those this year on the aptly named Conference Tourney page. See that page for links to every Pool A conference tournament, tournament dates, No. 1 seeds and champions. It’s one-stop viewing for all of those bubble teams (and everyone else) around the nation.

The links will be better when hosts/conferences create tournament sites, but for now I chose the most informative that I could find.

While I’m at it, check out the other pages on the right rail. The Standout Stats page is updated daily. The Standings/Big Matchups page is updated weekly. If you’re looking for live video/audio/stats, I have links for that as well.

-Ricky Nelson