D III Women's Volleyball

A source for NCAA Division III women's volleyball info and opinion, with a focus on the Midwest and Central regions

11/5/17: Last 9 Pool A berths to be determined

Top 25 upset watch
#14 Johns Hopkins 3, Swarthmore 1
#21 MIT 3, Wellesley 0

The final nine Pool A bids will be earned today. Follow them on the Conference Tourneys page.

-Ricky Nelson

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Written by Ricky Nelson

November 5, 2017 at 12:25 am

Posted in Uncategorized

27 Responses

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  1. I am so curious to see who gets the at large bids his year! Especially in the Midwest region, considering several top ranked regional teams didn’t win their conference. How many bids do you think the Midwest stands to get this year?

    Anonymous

    November 5, 2017 at 12:43 am

  2. Anon @ 12:43 a.m.,
    I’m working on that now. The Midwest is pretty deep again this year.
    -Ricky Nelson

    Ricky Nelson

    November 5, 2017 at 1:16 am

  3. Upsets (to one degree or another) so far that will cause issues:
    1) Carthage has forced their way in and now Millikin takes a deserved ‘consolation bid’. But that will hurt the WIAC schools as they would have been better off being compared to Carthage.
    2) Probably the strangest ranking this year has been Vassar at #1 in NY. the 4 teams below them were all much higher in the various services (Pablo, HuskerGeek, Herosports). Ithaca rates a bid hopefully Vassar is just out and does not steal one.
    3) Texas-Dallas over MHB, Does MHB get a consolation bid? Numbers say they should.

    Possible problems today:
    Birmingham-Southern over Berry, Wellesley over MIT, Swarthmore over Johns Hopkins.

    St. Benedict winning in MIAC should not be a problem as that whole group of 3 (Gustavus Adolphus and St. Thomas) were all in anyway by my count. Bethel and Minn-Morris are in the “last 4 in / last 4 out” soup.

    I think all 8 ranked teams in Midwest should get in even with Carthage taking an A.

    But….

    NED3VballFan

    November 5, 2017 at 5:47 am

  4. NED3VballFan,
    I have 11 of my 20 Pool C predictions done before waiting for Sunday’s results.

    I have St. Olaf ahead of both Bethel and Morris in the Central, Swat above the other potential at-larges in the M-A (Hopkins is in regardless) and UT Dallas ranked in the West instead of UT Tyler. I even have Tyler behind Cal Lutheran now.

    Hard to believe I couldn’t budge Springfield from the NE rankings. I still have the NY order as Vassar, Stevens, Ithaca.

    Of the 11 at-larges I doled out, none of them started with “Wisconsin.” I’m curious how the resumes will shake out this afternoon.

    After eight hours at my day job and another eight working on my projections, I’m going to get a few hours of sleep before these Sunday finals begin.

    -Ricky Nelson

    Ricky Nelson

    November 5, 2017 at 6:59 am

  5. I don’t think the West RAC has a choice but to rank La Verne over UTD in the West. Leos have a H2H and better overall criteria. Both will be behind Whittier and UMHB.

    rbrochelle

    November 5, 2017 at 9:03 am

  6. I did mine the other day and I had Carthage as one of the last in but didn’t have St. Ben’s. Either way, both did themselves a favor and helped clarify the pool as Millikin and St. Thomas/Gustavus Adolphus are obviously in. I think Wellesley will go in either way, but it’s more a feeling than anything with conviction behind that.

    No Brainers
    Gustavus Adophus
    Ohio Northern
    Carnegie Mellon
    Hopkins (if needed)
    Milllikin
    Illinois Wesleyan
    Aurora
    Chicago
    MIT (if needed)
    Tufts/Wesleyan Loser
    Berry (if needed)
    Trinity
    Southwestern

    And not quite a no-brainer but I think Mt Union, DePauw and Whitewater get in without trouble. That’s as many as 16, depending on the Hopkins/ Berry/ MIT scores.

    I think Ithaca has a more compelling case than Vassar, but I’m not sure they can get Ithaca ahead of Vassar, so that may be a blocking situation. I feel like it’s either both or neither. I think it will depend a lot on who Vassar is on the board with and in what order the above teams come off the board.

    Teams who needed to go to church today
    Babson (probably drawing dead but
    Birmingham Southern (if they lose)
    Bethel (you said they are in but 2 ranked wins is thin)
    Mary Washington
    Mary Hardin Baylor (if UTD gets ranked that’s 5 ranked wins… but nothing shiny so we’ll see)
    Morris
    Muhlenberg
    Muskingdom
    Swarthmore (if they lose)
    Scranton
    UW Eau Claire
    UW Stevens Point
    Washington and Lee
    Wellesley (if they lose)
    Whittier

    Am I missing anybody?

    Noreaster

    November 5, 2017 at 11:58 am

  7. Emery, St. Thomas. Good list.

    Tom

    November 5, 2017 at 12:47 pm

  8. *Emory.

    Sorry.

    Tom

    November 5, 2017 at 12:49 pm

  9. rbrochelle,
    You’re right.
    -Ricky Nelson

    Ricky Nelson

    November 5, 2017 at 12:54 pm

  10. Noreaster,
    I agree on Ithaca. The Bombers compare more favorably nationally among NY teams, but I didn’t see how they could be above Vassar. At least Stevens took care of business today.
    -Ricky Nelson

    Ricky Nelson

    November 5, 2017 at 12:57 pm

  11. I mentioned St. Thomas and then forgot to list them, and Emory was an oversight, but that shrinks the available spots even more.

    Noreaster

    November 5, 2017 at 1:15 pm

  12. Nor – Who said Bethel was in? I’ve got them behind Olaf and I think Olaf is a tough sell.

    I also can’t get Vassar out of the #1 hole. Ithaca would have their own issues out-of-region, too.

    Team I like that may never get considered – Scranton.

    rbrochelle

    November 5, 2017 at 1:23 pm

  13. For the Midwest, so you pick Whitewater, or Eu Claire, or both? Seems like their fates are tied together. Eu Claire has strung together a stronger back half of their season than Whitewater has. The only ranked regional win Whitewater has is against Eu Claire!

    Anonymous

    November 5, 2017 at 1:43 pm

  14. Anon @ 1:43 p.m.,
    I have Whitewater and Carthage ahead of Eau Claire. UWW and UWEC both have wins over ranked Northwestern.
    -Ricky Nelson

    Ricky Nelson

    November 5, 2017 at 1:55 pm

  15. Agree with Eau Claire before Whitewater but mess with the process even more …I also believe Whitewater had better winning percentage and better record against common opponents … Eau Claire lost to St norbert in thier last part of the season… Whitewater had only 1 loss to unranked team all year (Luther who was ranked last week) .. How do you or do you at all weigh in bad losses?

    Anonymous

    November 5, 2017 at 2:27 pm

  16. RB, NED3VB had Bethel in his last 4 in.

    Anonymous, you could be right about EC vs Whitewater. I see both sides but I lend weight to Thursday’s result.

    Noreaster

    November 5, 2017 at 2:51 pm

  17. Most recent win goes to ww…@eau Claire in 4… Needs be looked at seriously by committee

    Anonymous

    November 5, 2017 at 2:57 pm

  18. Next topic, with three teams in Texas, and 3 other west teams on the board to fly, do they fly 5 teams into Texas or do they all go to “mainland” locations?

    Noreaster

    November 5, 2017 at 3:00 pm

  19. Only Tufts from NE. Do not see Wellesley at all. They Played no one. They are in the 90s in the ranking sites.

    NED3VballFan

    November 5, 2017 at 3:07 pm

  20. Typically they fly 5 to Texas and use the 6th one to build a South regional, which with Berry and Emory in they probably have to figure out how to do this year.

    NED3VballFan

    November 5, 2017 at 3:10 pm

  21. Regarding the West, are you assuming only 6 teams from the West – CC, CMS, TU, SU, Pac Lu and UTD? That would be a surprise as they typically get 7 or 8 teams. I think Whittier is in and I think they get in early. I think UMHB will probably get in, but haven’t gotten that far. That would be 4 teams in Texas so 4 flights coming in.

    Wellesley has a shot in my book. NONE of the last few teams have beaten anyone and the NE region always gets a surprise team in.

    rbrochelle

    November 5, 2017 at 3:17 pm

  22. Taking my best shot at what I think they will do with the 20 slots, while taking travel into account.

    Emory
    Gustavus Adolphus
    Ohio Northern
    Carnegie Mellon
    Milllikin
    Illinois Wesleyan
    Aurora
    Chicago
    Tufts
    Trinity
    Southwestern
    St. Thomas
    Mount Union
    DePauw
    UW Whitewater
    Whittier
    Mary Hardin-Baylor
    Birmingham Southern
    Washington & Lee
    Vassar

    Next up would probably be Ithaca due to high regional ranking. UW Eau Claire is deserving but hard to see more than 9 from MW region.

    Tom

    November 5, 2017 at 3:52 pm

  23. Here it is by the numbers (average of ranking sites)

    CE region (3)
    Gustavos Adolphus (7.33 ave ranking)
    St. Thomas (17.67)
    Minn-Morris (47.33)

    GL region (4)
    Ohio Northern (4.33)
    Mt. Union (28.00)
    DePauw (19.33)
    Muskingum (36.00)

    MA region (1)
    Carnegie Mellon (14.67)

    MW region (6)
    Millikin (8.67)
    Illinois Wesleyan (10.00)
    Aurora (19.67)
    Chicago (16.00)
    Wisc- Eau Claire (30.00)
    Wisc- Whitewater (30.67)

    NE region (1)
    Tufts (43.00)

    NY region (1)
    Ithaca (32.00)

    SO region (1)
    Emory (8.00)

    WE region (3)
    Southwestern (TX) (13.00)
    Trinity (TX) (13.67)
    Mary Hardin-Baylor (34.33)
    #######

    “last 4 in” (from above)
    Mary Hardin-Baylor (34.33)
    Muskingum (36.00)
    Tufts (43.00)
    Minn-Morris (47.33)

    “first 4 out”
    Swarthmore (49.67)
    Whittier (50.67)
    Bethel (MN) (55.67)
    Birmingham-Southern (59.00)

    “you can’t play if your not ranked group” (changes?)
    Wisc-Stevens Point (33.33)
    Texas-Dallas (39.00)
    Cornell college (41.67)
    La Verne (43.33)
    Heidelberg (43.67)
    Cal Lutheran (44.67)
    Whitworth 47.33)
    Wisc-Oshkosh 47.67)
    Augsburg 48.00)
    Hanover College (49.33)
    Luther (50.33)

    NED3VballFan

    November 5, 2017 at 4:00 pm

  24. Love the lists guys!

    Ned – Remember UT-Dallas got the auto-bid from the ASC tournament.

    rbrochelle

    November 5, 2017 at 4:22 pm

  25. @NED3VballFan and @rbrochelle…

    ditto with Hanover, winner of the HCAC tourney

    Anonymous

    November 5, 2017 at 4:41 pm

  26. and Cornell (IA) for that matter.

    Anonymous

    November 5, 2017 at 4:42 pm

  27. NED3VballFan,
    Thank you for sharing those. My concern is that using three averaged scores runs the risk of being skewed by outliers. One of the sites you used in particular has had, in my opinion, dubious rankings all year.

    I’d almost rather trust old reliable Pablo as a starting point and see how Pablo compares to an average of the others.

    -Ricky Nelson

    Ricky Nelson

    November 5, 2017 at 4:54 pm


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